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AnalysisDecember 5, 202412 min read

The Real Cost of Carbon Programs in Washington

An objective analysis of Washington's cap-and-trade and low carbon fuel standard programs, examining their costs, benefits, and long-term implications for consumers.

Washington mountains

The Cap-and-Invest Program

In 2021, Washington passed the Climate Commitment Act (CCA), establishing one of the most comprehensive carbon reduction programs in the United States. The cap-and-invest program sets a declining limit on carbon emissions from large emitters, including fuel suppliers.

How It Works

  • Quarterly auctions where carbon allowances are sold
  • Prices determined by market demand
  • Revenue funds climate and clean energy projects
  • Companies must purchase allowances for each metric ton of carbon emitted

Recent Auction Results

2023 Range

$48-$63

per allowance

Sept 2024

$29.88

per allowance

Dec 2024

$40.26

per allowance

Post-Election Price Surge

After voters rejected the repeal measure in November 2024, carbon allowance prices rebounded 35% at the December auction.

Impact on Gas Prices

Allowance PriceCost Per Gallon
$30/allowance~$0.32/gallon
$40/allowance~$0.43/gallon
$60/allowance~$0.64/gallon

The Clean Fuel Standard

Separate from cap-and-invest, the Clean Fuel Standard (CFS) requires gradual reductions in the carbon intensity of transportation fuels sold in Washington. This program started January 1, 2023, and aims to reduce carbon intensity 20% below 2017 levels by 2034.

Compliance Options

Blend

Mix lower-carbon fuels

Purchase

Buy credits from clean fuel producers

Invest

Fund EV infrastructure

CFS credit prices in 2024 have ranged from $20 to $40 per credit, adding approximately $0.05 to $0.15 per gallon to fuel costs.

Combined Program Costs

Together, these programs currently add approximately $0.45 to $0.60 per gallon to Washington fuel prices, depending on current allowance and credit prices.

Where does the money go? Revenue from cap-and-invest funds clean transportation projects, climate resilience initiatives, and support for affected communities. In 2023-2024, the program generated over $2 billion for these purposes.

The Debate

Supporters Argue

  • Programs are necessary to address climate change
  • Revenue funds important environmental projects
  • Costs will decrease as clean alternatives become available

Critics Argue

  • Disproportionate impact on lower-income residents
  • Washington's emissions are small globally
  • Costs exceed initial projections

Looking Ahead

With voters rejecting repeal efforts in November 2024, these programs will continue. Consumers can expect continued price fluctuations based on allowance auctions, gradual increases in carbon intensity reduction requirements, and potential program modifications by the legislature.